Nigeria’s agricultural crisis: A threat to economic stability

Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil continues to hinder its economic diversification efforts, leaving the country vulnerable to global market fluctuations. Agriculture, once a key driver of the economy, remains largely untapped due to insecurity in rural areas. Violent conflicts between herders and farmers, particularly in Nigeria’s agricultural heartlands such as Benue and Nasarawa, have led to the displacement of farmers, destruction of farmlands, and the loss of over 1,356 lives between 2020 and 2024. These challenges undermine Nigeria’s ambitions for food security and a diversified economy, according to recent findings from SBM Intelligence.

Rural insecurity has been exacerbated by the rise of kidnapping-for-ransom gangs, particularly in the north, where agriculture is the primary economic activity. Farmers, facing constant threats, have paid over ₦139 million in levies between 2020 and 2023 to ensure they can continue planting and harvesting. As these challenges persist, agricultural productivity has plummeted, driving inflation to 37.52% as of August 2024.

Globally, many nations face food security issues due to geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and disrupted supply chains. However, countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia have made significant strides in agricultural development and diversification through technological innovation and strong policy frameworks. In contrast, Nigeria’s inability to address rural insecurity with urgency continues to hinder progress.

Despite its vast arable land, favorable climate, and young population, Nigeria has struggled to leverage agriculture as a means of economic recovery. Government policies like the Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP) and the Green Alternative have had limited impact due to persistent security challenges. Non-oil exports, including agricultural products, dropped to 9.65% of total exports in the first half of 2024, down from 15.30% in 2020, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Source- Business Day

Expert Review for Agri-Food Stakeholders:
The ongoing rural insecurity in Nigeria poses a severe threat to both food security and economic diversification, particularly within the agricultural sector. The violent herder-farmer conflicts, displacement, and widespread ransom payments have undermined productivity, driving inflation to dangerous levels and threatening the viability of the agricultural industry.

The death of over 1,356 farmers between 2020 and 2024 is not just a tragic loss of lives but also a blow to the agricultural labor force. This reduces overall food production, contributing to food insecurity and the rise in food prices. The mass displacement of farmers further exacerbates the problem, making it difficult for them to cultivate land and harvest crops.

For agri-food stakeholders, there are critical areas that need immediate attention to salvage Nigeria’s agricultural potential:

Security and Infrastructure Investment:
The current insecurity calls for an urgent response, including deploying more security personnel and employing advanced surveillance technologies. Solutions like drones and early-warning systems could provide better monitoring and intervention against attacks on farmers. Additionally, securing investments in agricultural infrastructure, such as irrigation systems and transportation networks, would enhance market access and enable farmers to continue operations even in unstable environments.

Policy Reforms and Land-Use Management:
To reduce herder-farmer conflicts, there needs to be a clear land-use policy that addresses the interests of both groups. A policy framework that supports sustainable land sharing or designated grazing areas could reduce the risk of violence. More importantly, resolving these conflicts through dialogue and inclusive policymaking will have a long-term positive effect on agricultural productivity.

Mechanization and Technology Integration:
Countries like Indonesia have managed to diversify their economies by investing in agricultural innovation. Nigeria must take a cue from these successful examples by promoting technology-driven solutions, such as mechanized farming techniques, to improve yields and reduce labor costs. Large-scale farms in secure regions should be incentivized to boost production in the short term, while gradual investments in modernizing agricultural methods across the country are implemented.

Public-Private Partnerships:
Nigeria must embrace collaboration between government bodies and private sector actors, both local and international. Encouraging foreign and domestic investments in agribusiness can help accelerate the agricultural sector’s growth. Developing robust public-private partnerships will lead to better infrastructure, increased access to financing, and the integration of modern farming practices.

Diversification Lessons from Other Nations:
Nigeria can draw important lessons from Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and Indonesia’s agricultural programs. Both countries have made significant investments in agricultural technology and rural development, leading to a more diversified economic base. Nigeria’s leaders must take bold, decisive action to replicate similar successes, prioritizing agriculture as a key driver of economic growth.

Without addressing these fundamental issues, Nigeria’s agricultural sector will continue to struggle, and the dream of economic diversification will remain elusive. The government must now act swiftly to improve security, modernize agricultural practices, and create enabling environments for both smallholder farmers and large-scale agribusinesses. Only through comprehensive reform and collaboration can Nigeria unlock the full potential of its agricultural sector, ensuring a more sustainable and resilient economy.

Key Recommendations for Agri-Food Stakeholders:

Increased Security Investments: Employ more security personnel and leverage advanced technology to protect farmlands and farmers.
Policy Overhaul for Land-Use: Develop land-use policies that balance the needs of farmers and pastoralists to prevent further conflicts.
Agricultural Innovation and Technology: Encourage the adoption of modern agricultural tools and mechanized farming to boost productivity.
Public-Private Partnerships: Facilitate investment in agribusiness through collaborations with the private sector.
Strategic Learning from Global Successes: Draw lessons from countries that have successfully diversified their economies and agriculture sectors, such as Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

Acting on these recommendations will not only strengthen Nigeria’s agricultural sector but also contribute to the broader goal of reducing dependence on oil and achieving sustainable economic growth.”